US Treasury markets reacted calmly, as the June CPI inflation data beat expectations to reach a thirteen year high. This week’s ECB meeting should shed light on average inflation targeting plans, while Flash PMI data will indicate the current state of global business sentiment.

Government bonds rallied and yields fell sharply, as the reflation trade lost steam and markets sensed the peak in GDP growth acceleration. This week brings the start of Q2 reporting season in the US, which could tell a similar story on recovery earnings growth.

US equity markets were boosted by strong PMI and employment data, while China’s main index saw profit taking after the Communist Party’s centenary celebrations.

Equity markets responded positively to the new US infrastructure bill, as well as to reassuring rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve. This week should bring strong PMI surveys from across the globe, with US June employment data at the close.

Markets were hit with a wave of volatility in response to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signalling a quicker path to higher interest rates to counter inflation earlier than previously anticipated. Assets such as value stocks, commodities and gold all fell, while those that benefit from disinflationary pressures, such as long-term US Treasuries and highly-rated corporate bonds, all rose. 

Inflation has been the spectre stalking the markets in the first half of this year. Major central banks talk of ‘transitory’ inflation, but are monitoring developments extremely carefully nonetheless. Jaime Arguello, CIO of Architas, Rémi Lambert, CIO of Architas France and Chris Iggo, CIO Core Investments at AXA Investment Managers discuss what’s on their investment radar. Hosted by Lorna Denny, Investment Specialist.

US inflation data came in above forecasts, rising by its highest annual rate since 2008, but there was little reaction from the bond markets. This week will bring the US Federal Reserve meeting, where we will get an insight into the central bank’s current thinking.

US employment numbers were the focus of financial markets, falling short of consensus forecasts, while agricultural commodity prices soared. This week is forecast to bring a further jump in US headline CPI numbers to 4.7%, as well as the monthly meeting of the European Central Bank.

The scale of President Biden’s $6 trillion budget plans impressed the markets. US Federal Reserve members addressed the ‘talking about tapering’ issue, nonetheless failing to lift the US dollar, which hit a three year low against China’s renminbi. 

Bond markets took the latest Federal Reserve commentary in their stride, while equity market volatility jumped on fears of ‘crypto-contagion’.

This week should bring further confirmation of the global rebound in economic activity, as well as more insight into the US Federal Reserve’s claims of ‘transitory’ inflation pressures. 

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen rattled both bond and equity markets globally with comments about interest rate hikes, before offering reassuring words on inflation.