In agricultural commodity markets, cocoa soared after adverse weather brought a poor harvest, forcing chocolate prices higher. Among precious metals, gold hit successive record highs, responding to sticky US inflation and uncertainty over the path of interest rates. 

Market expectations for US interest rate cuts have seen a sea change since the start of 2024. Confident forecasts of six quarter point cuts have shrunk to fewer than two cuts by year end. Some commentators even predict that rates will be forced to rise again, with options markets pricing a 20% chance of a rate hike. 

Key central banks suggested that rates would be cut this year and appeared less concerned about the possibility that inflation would rebound. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates on hold at its March meeting and maintained its guidance for three 25 bps rate cuts in 2024, with financial markets now readjusting to the Fed’s own projections.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) became the first major central bank to reduce interest rates this cycle. The SNB reduced rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.5%, its first cut in nine years, after Swiss inflation fell to 1.2% in February, marking the ninth consecutive month that prices have been within the 0-2% target range.

Many words have been written about the transformative potential of the implementation of generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) across the industries and nations of the globe. 

The US House of Representatives has approved a bill to ban TikTok from US app stores, unless its Chinese parent ByteDance agrees to dispose of the app. Existing users would be excluded from future updates, meaning that TikTok would eventually become obsolete in the US. 

The latest headline inflation rates have slowed, but risks remain. US average hourly earnings ticked up at the beginning of the year, and job growth was far stronger than expected, with recent data also revised higher.

Hopes faded for interest rate cuts in March. While the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank indicated that later rate reductions were possible, they stressed it was too early to consider such a move.

The phrase ‘irrational exuberance’ is increasingly applied to the stratospheric performance of some areas of the tech sector. It describes a state of affairs when market optimism gets ahead of more rational profit forecasts. 

Donald Trump trounced his rival for the Republican presidential nomination at the South Carolina primary. With ‘Super Tuesday’ bringing another dozen primaries in early March, commentators are outlining the likely shape of a Trump second term.

Headline inflation rates accelerated modestly into year end, to be followed by early indicators of strengthening economic activity in January. Central banks warned financial markets against over optimism regarding the probability of rate cuts in the first quarter.

Central banks warned that financial markets might have become overly optimistic about the probability of rate cuts in the first quarter of this year, after headline inflation rates accelerated modestly in December followed by early indicators of economic activity strengthening in January. 

It has been heralded as the biggest global election year in history. Over 60 countries are either confirmed or likely to be heading to the ballot boxes over the course of 2024, accounting for 48% of the world’s population. 

Markets reconsidered their rosy economic forecasts of the month before, when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) had given the green light to interest rate cuts. 

US inflation continued to ease, reinforcing investor sentiment that the Fed was finally transitioning to a more dovish stance. The central bank indicated that interest rates were unlikely to rise further, and markets are pricing in 75 basis points of cuts during 2024.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) pivoted to a more dovish stance, with Fed chair Jay Powell indicating that US rates were now “likely at or near” their peak for this rate-hiking cycle. US policymakers are now forecasting 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, with more to follow in 2025.

Markets hailed the pivot point in interest rates, after dovish commentary from US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. Expectations that rates would be cut multiple times in 2024 ignited a surge in financial markets.

There is an old saying that it is best to “keep your powder dry”. It is thought to have been said by English statesman Oliver Cromwell in the 17th century, while rallying his men as they went into battle.