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Archinomics Weekly - Monday 18th October 2021

3 months ago



US equities responded to positive surprises in major banks’ Q3 earnings reports. European markets were boosted by hopes of economic recovery next year, despite cuts to German growth forecasts for 2021. Japanese markets rallied on reassurance of no changes to capital gains tax, while China marked time ahead of the Q3 GDP report.


US Treasury bonds lost ground made earlier in the week, after September retail sales came in better than expected. Core eurozone bond yields ended a volatile week lower, as prices rose. Corporate credit market sentiment improved, although volumes remained light across the spectrum.


Safe haven currencies, such as the US dollar and the yen, lost recent gains, as the markets adopted a more ‘risk on’ stance.


Oil prices continued to surge, with West Texas Intermediate touching a seven year high. Industrial metals enjoyed a rally, while the gold price was little changed.

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The European Union launched the biggest ever ‘green bond’, which met demand 11 times higher than the €12 billion offered.


US headline CPI inflation hit a twenty six year high, driven by volatile elements such as energy, food and rent.

In China, September producer price inflation grew at the fastest rate since 1995, reflecting the scarcity of energy and components.

The Q3 earnings season started strongly, as major US banks such as Goldman Sachs reported a bumper quarter for M&A.

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Flash PMI data from the major economies should indicate the extent of any growth slowdown.

Quarterly earnings reports from US companies, including semiconductor supplier ASML, are expected to continue a strong trend.

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